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New Hampshire the key?

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Josiah Schmidt
Fri Oct 23 2009, 11:25PM Print View

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I think the New Hampshire presidential primary might be the perfect launching pad for making Gary the Republican Party's actual nominee. They are notorious for going for independent-type candidates, and Gary ought to be able to claim that corner.

Ron Paul was just a few points away from coming in third place in Iowa in 2008. Gary can potentially come into the caucuses with the same enthusiastic base of support and mega-fundraising that Ron Paul had, but also have the benefit of appearing younger, more experienced, more mainstream, and more electable. I see no reason that Gary can't pull off a top-three finish in Iowa. If he does that, and goes on to win New Hampshire, he could potentially claim front-runner status. It would take a lot of hard work to pull this off, but it is absolutely not a far-out or unlikely scenario.

The only problem is that we can't allow other people to see this as "Gary Johnson's strategy," like "winning Iowa" was Romney's strategy, "winning New Hampshire" was Hillary's strategy, "winning South Carolina" was Huckabee's strategy, or "winning Florida" was Giuliani's strategy. The worst kind of hurdle a candidate has to jump is the hurdle of ridiculously high expectations. If everybody comes to expect a huge Johnson win in NH, and Johnson only delivers even a small win, that could end up damaging him on the whole. So, we'd need to guarantee Johnson a win in NH without making it seem like that was our whole strategy.

But, I think a top three finish in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire is the most plausible road to a Johnson nomination.

What say you?

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Elwar
Mon Oct 26 2009, 10:08AM

Fighting For Liberty
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Joined: Wed Sep 23 2009, 12:16PM
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New Hampshire and Iowa are big for Johnson...I fear that the voters in South Carolina will ignore their heritage of fighting for states rights when it comes to Johnson's view that abortion laws should be left to the states to decide.

One factor to keep in mind though is Michigan and Florida play a bigger role this time around. They both lost out on their delegates for starting early last time, but that sacrifice allows them to start at the same time this time around without losing their delegates.

Those are some huge states as far as delegates go.

[ Edited Mon Oct 26 2009, 10:09AM ]
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tajitj
Tue Oct 27 2009, 04:45PM

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Joined: Wed Jul 01 2009, 03:40AM
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The big game changer is that of the guys floated, there is no big "independent" minded guy. That is where Gary can come in. McCain sweep the floor when it came to independents.
Palin, Huck, Romney, Pawlenty can fight over the social conservative base all day, but if the Ron Paulers who are a good 7% to 10% of GOP go for Gary, all he needs is another 10% of the independents.
Remember half the states let them vote in Republican primaries the other half dont.

Also most imporant point is the lack of a race for the Dems. Every left leaning independent can go vote for Gary because at the end of the day he will be closer to them on social issues.

Just something to think about, this is going to be so fun to watch.
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Josiah Schmidt
Tue Oct 27 2009, 06:25PM

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Joined: Sun Aug 02 2009, 09:18PM
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tajitj wrote ...

The big game changer is that of the guys floated, there is no big "independent" minded guy. That is where Gary can come in. McCain sweep the floor when it came to independents.
Palin, Huck, Romney, Pawlenty can fight over the social conservative base all day, but if the Ron Paulers who are a good 7% to 10% of GOP go for Gary, all he needs is another 10% of the independents.
Remember half the states let them vote in Republican primaries the other half dont.

Also most imporant point is the lack of a race for the Dems. Every left leaning independent can go vote for Gary because at the end of the day he will be closer to them on social issues.

Just something to think about, this is going to be so fun to watch.


Good point. New Hampshire, with its open primaries, will be perfect for Gary. Lots of progressives, with no Democratic primary to vote in, will likely gravitate to the Republican primary, and hopefully Gary can sweep up all those anti-war, pro-privacy, pro-choice (even though Gary is, for all practical purposes, pro-life when it comes to the role of government in the abortion issue) voters.

Gary Johnson 2012
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Josiah Schmidt
Tue Oct 27 2009, 06:26PM

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Joined: Sun Aug 02 2009, 09:18PM
Posts: 62
Btw, Elwar, perhaps you might want to move this thread to the New Hampshire forum now that we've got one.

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